1. What is FinPredictions?
FinPredictions is a website where you can make forecasts about a variety of topics related to finance and investing.
2. How are predictions scored?
Predictions are scored using a standard approach for scoring probabilistic predictions called Brier score (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score
Your average Brier Score is calculated across all your predictions.
You can also see how many predictions you made and for how many questions.
A number of up-votes you received is also displayed.
3. Can I delete or edit my prediction?
Once made, your prediction cannot be deleted or edited. If you want to change your prediction, just make a new one. If you would like to remove a comment that comes with a prediction, you can Report it (Report button) and write an explanation. Administrators will handle reported comments based on their discretion.
4. If I change my prediction for the same question several times, will the most accurate prediction determine my final score?
Your Brier score for a question is based on all predictions you made. The score will be calculated for each day based on your most recent prediction active during that day. The scores then are averaged across all days when at least one of your predictions is active.
5. Can I delete or edit my comment after I submit it?
No. If you want to add additional details or explanations, you can just comment on that comment. If you want a comment removed, you can Report it (Report button) and write an explanation. Administrators will handle reported comments based on their discretion.
6. What can I do if I find an inappropriate comment made by another participant?
You can Report it (Report
button) and write an explanation. Administrators will handle reported comments based on their discretion.
7. How and when questions are closed?
Each question has its closing date which is indicated in the question’s description. The question will be closed on a closing date or earlier if it resolves earlier. Administrators will exercise their discretion to close questions early.
A system will display only the questions that have not expired yet. Expired questions will not be displayed together with active ones, but they still can be viewed if searched or filtered. However, predictions for expired questions cannot be made.
8. When scores are updated after closing a question?
The system will update scores after closing a question as soon as possible. Usually it should happen within one day but may take longer.