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What will be Alibaba's stock price on June 30th, 2021?

Started: Dec. 30, 2020, 11:49 a.m., Closed: June 29, 2021, 6 a.m.
Started: Dec. 30, 2020, 11:49 a.m., Closed: June 29, 2021, 6 a.m.

What will be Alibaba's closing stock price on June 30th, 2021?



Current consensus
10.40%
23.80%
29.60%
12.60%
5.00%
18.60%
6
Jurgis
April 16, 2021, 7:49 p.m.
Answer:
Below $200

$200 - $230

$230 - $260

$260 - $300

$300 - $360

Above $360

Possibility:
2%

29%

54%

12%

3%

0%

It's unlikely BABA is going to run up with CCPs fines and regulations.

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GordonMSD
Jan. 22, 2021, 9:48 a.m.
Answer:
Below $200

$200 - $230

$230 - $260

$260 - $300

$300 - $360

Above $360

Possibility:
0%

35%

40%

25%

0%

0%


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Spekulatius
Jan. 12, 2021, 10:40 p.m.
Answer:
Below $200

$200 - $230

$230 - $260

$260 - $300

$300 - $360

Above $360

Possibility:
15%

20%

35%

15%

10%

5%


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Alex
Jan. 6, 2021, 1:30 p.m.
Answer:
Below $200

$200 - $230

$230 - $260

$260 - $300

$300 - $360

Above $360

Possibility:
35%

35%

19%

11%

0%

0%

So far Alibaba's growth was sustainable. Only issue is between Ma and Chinese group in power. As I mentioned here https://finpredictions.com/questions/will-ant-group-have-ipo-june-30th-2021/ everything will be determined by agreements between them, if they agree at all. Ma is still missing, and it's look like they dealing with him seriously. I doubt this will be resolved soon. Uncertainty will continue. On the other hand, even if they will do something to Ma, Alibaba itself will continue to operate. Maybe with some turbulences or restructurings. No Alibabas shareholders will be placed to GULAG. And growth will renew. But not by June 30.

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Ray
Dec. 30, 2020, 4:08 p.m.
Answer:
Below $200

$200 - $230

$230 - $260

$260 - $300

$300 - $360

Above $360

Possibility:
0%

0%

0%

0%

12%

88%

Alibaba is great tech juggernaut and Jack Ma is the god. Capitalism wins. Stock goes up. End of the story.

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Jurgis
Dec. 30, 2020, 3:55 p.m.
Answer:
Below $200

$200 - $230

$230 - $260

$260 - $300

$300 - $360

Above $360

Possibility:
12%

7%

15%

23%

22%

21%

I think that BABA stock is undervalued if we trust its financials. Even assuming the 22% growth that Morningstar predicts, the stock should return around 12-15% per year. Considering that a lot of similar non-Chinese companies trade at way higher valuations and way lower expected returns, there is a high likelihood that BABA will catch up. On the other hand, I believe that the regulatory risk is real and there is a risk of real sanctions that may hurt BABA's business and lead to the share stagnation or additional drop. So my prediction would be a bit barbell'y

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