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Will Ant Group have an IPO by June 30th, 2021?

Started: Dec. 30, 2020, 2:30 p.m., Closed: June 29, 2021, 6 a.m.
Started: Dec. 30, 2020, 2:30 p.m., Closed: June 29, 2021, 6 a.m.

Planned Ant Group IPO was scrapped recently by Chinese regulators. Will the issues between Ant Group and regulators be resolved? Will Ant Group have an IPO by June 30th, 2021?



Possible Answers
2
Current consensus
23.00%
77.00%
2
Jurgis
April 16, 2021, 7:39 p.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
10%

90%

Reducing with the passage of time.

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GordonMSD
Jan. 14, 2021, 8:27 a.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
1%

99%


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Spekulatius
Jan. 12, 2021, 10:30 p.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
20%

80%


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Spekulatius
Jan. 12, 2021, 10:30 p.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
20%

80%


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LauraD
Jan. 3, 2021, 1:35 p.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
1%

99%


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Narayanasamy
Jan. 2, 2021, 9:20 a.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
30%

70%

Good Day Friends. Its little chance that IPO happen by June 30. But nothing Bad will happen to Ma and His Company. Zuckerberg often visiting Congress Comissions... Gates was doing Same... HAPPY NEW YEAR

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Jan. 2, 2021, 1:20 p.m.
But China isn't USA. On the other hand, there is no group in US strong enough to take down tech giants. Republicans can keep inviting Zuckerberg to Congress as many times as they want. Nothing happening. Unlike in China. Happy New Year to you too :-)

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Alex
Dec. 31, 2020, 11:04 a.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
5%

95%

Let's try to look at this not as at the issue between Ant and regulators, but as at larger process in the current Chinese history. Xi Jinping's war on corruption and his replacements in authorities in the past years, I think, is one process in struggle for power against other groups. Ma's disappearance from public activity, antimonopolistic investigation against Alibaba and Ant's IPO stopping are part of this this struggle. Platforms in China got enormous influence, and Alibaba especially as one of the top world IT-giants. Stopping Ant's IPO it's not about regulations, but about disagreements between Ma's visions and Chinese group in power. Looks like this disagreement appeared after Ma's speech about outdated world's financial system and Chinese regulators stopping innovations. Outcome of this issue will be determined by agreements between them, if it will happen at all. If conflict appeared, it likely will not be solved. In this case, there will be replacements in Ant's management. With that, there will be changes in company as whole. Even if Ant and Ma survive, new regulation rules will postpone IPO again. Likely all these factors will be solved in six month, so no, I think there will be no Ant's IPO by June 30.

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Dec. 31, 2020, 11:06 a.m.
*likely all these factors will not be solved

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Jan. 3, 2021, 1:34 p.m.
I am amazed at those brave souls who consider investing or even invest in Chinese companies. Yes, these companies bring profit so far, but it's like a picnic on a barrel of gunpowder - now everything is peachy, rainbows, puppies and unicorns, but at any point in time this picnic can be blown up by a whim of regulators.

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Ray
Dec. 30, 2020, 4:12 p.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
94%

6%

Chinese regulators cannot regulate capitalism for ants! Ants win. Ant wins.

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Jurgis
Dec. 30, 2020, 3:36 p.m.
Answer:
Yes

No

Possibility:
20%

80%

I think the chance that Ant and Chinese regulators resolve the issues soon and that the IPO happens by the end of June is not that high. There is some possibility of it happening though.

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